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Who Wins the Group 1 UBET Classic? A Statistical Look

The UBET Festival of Racing is finally here and the day’s feature race, the Group 1 UBET Classic looks like is going to be one for the ages with four Group 1 winners and 11 other black-type winners in the field.

Local hope Viddora has been installed as the $4.20 favourite with UBET after drawing barrier one while last year’s winner Secret Agenda has drawn barrier fourteen.

With a field so deep featuring Group 1 winners like Shoals and Catchy along with Group 2 winning speedsters Super Cash, Quilista, Miss Gunpowder and Formality; how do you pick a winner?

Using statistics from the last ten years, we can hopefully try and narrow the field of 18 down to 1 winner!

Lead Up Race

The last ten winners of the race have all contested a Stakes race in their last start.

This rules out: Whispering Brook, Miss Gunpowder, Mica Lil and Mystified.

Last Start Result

The last six winners have all run in the top three in their last start.

This rules out: Missrock, Legless Veuve, It’s Been a Battle, Formality and Tulip.

First-Up

No horse has won first-up in nine years.

This rules out: Super Cash, Pedrena and Shoals.

 

So we’ve cut the field to six potential winning options! This is where it gets very tough!

Secret Agenda, Viddora, Dainty Tess, Quilista, Catchy and True Excelsior are the horses remain.

Splitting Hairs

No horse has gone back to back, which rules out Secret Agenda.

No favourite has won since Black Caviar since 2012 which rules out Viddora.

 

Down to four and now it’s hard to split, but there is one stat that stands out!

The Deciding Stat?

Four of the last six winners have been third-up in their preparation.

The only remaining horse that fits the bill is the Western Australian visitor, Dainty Tess!

 

Time will tell if the four-year-old mare claims Saturday's $1 million Group 1 UBET Classic but there is not doubt we are in for one of the all-time great editions of the UBET Classic! 

 

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