Not able to physically walk the track this week, but the only change from last meeting is the rail moving out an additional 3m (to the 8m position) from the 1000m mark to the winning post.
I thought the track played really well last Saturday and the data backs that up. We saw winners spread right across the track in the straight. Rich Gina hugged the rail late to win race eight and Lake's Folly finished up in lane 9 when he won the third. It was also possible to come from midfield and beyond with a genuine tempo, Lake's Folly gave away six lengths at the 600m mark and Bleriot gave away five. Given the quick turnaround, I think we can use last week as a pretty good foundation for predicting how the track will play on Saturday.
If we bundle the previous three years of meetings together where the rail was in either the 7m, 8m or 9m positions we have a better spread to analyse. Up until the September 4th 2021 meeting there had been 12 meetings that fit into the sample. My notes are that 6 of those clearly favoured on-pacers, 3 of those had a minor leaning to horses that were handy and the remaining 3 were classed as being totally fair. On this data alone you'd be happy to hedge bets that on-pace horses close to the fence have a good edge. However, since and including that September 4th meeting there has been three meetings in the sample and on every occasion I believe racing close to the fence has been a negative. The latest meeting in the sample was November 20th 2021, so there's been a bit of time between drinks.
Verdict: Last week I noted there was some wear towards the middle of the track from the 800m to the 400m caused by a set of jump-outs earlier that week. The rail moves out an additional 3m in that section but I'm still not convinced they'll be deep enough for it to be a factor. I'm using last week as a strong guide and coupling that with notes on the recent meetings in similar positions. I'm thinking the track will race fairly and give all horses their chance, which I know goes against the greater body of data but I'm leaning on recency bias in this case.
Ms J Heaney, D J Farrell, J Craner, R M Warnock, Mrs L A Warnock, M J Wevill, D R Ward, G W Guest, K G Dolling, M Stammers, C A Reynolds, Mrs S K Reynolds, Miss L I Reynolds, M Browne, A T Davenport, J M Baker, Garner (Mgr: M D Sheehan), Tell Them They're Dreaming (Mgr: Ms J Heaney) & Dream To Win
Excluzive, M J Doyle, J P Young, S G Willoughby, Extential Racing (Mgr T Mok), A K Stewart, T A Shorland, S P P O'Sullivan, T Russo, K Y S (Mgr T A Place), T W Mok, P J McLean, Killara Racing Pty Ltd, D M Karpluk, Mrs D Hambly, Good Decision, M J Corbett, M P Barker, D J Ashwood & Mrs S L A Bandick
Gold, Black Seams, Black And White Checked Cap, Gold Pom Pom
Owners
R B R (Mgr: R W Balfour), D R Horrell, Jetty Racing (Mgr: M P Player), Meister (Mgr: G N Harvey), M J Kelly, Mrs R A Balfour, C R Dean, A Dean, P Kristoris, Mrs S M Kristoris & Francs Army (Mgr: J R Crewdson)
Royal Blue, White Seams, Hooped Sleeves, White Cap
Owners
Ms J Heaney, C McLean, Mrs M Holton, R Warnock, N Holton, B Charlton, Mrs P Southern-Ninnis, P Ninnis, J Atkinson, R Holton, Ms C Holton, C Reynolds, S Rolls, Mrs S Reynolds, Mrs L Warnock, Ms M White, Ms R Atkinson, G Conron, G S Dankert & Mrs A Charlton
White, Royal Blue Spots, Royal Blue And White Spots Sleeves And Cap
Owners
Wylie Dalziel Roy Higgins Racing (Mgr: W J Dalziel), P G Moody, Jabawi, P A O Barnett, Beers And Bubbles, C J French, Mrs S E McKay, P J Pollock, Mrs K J Gaylard, R J Higgins, Ms X Huang, Mrs S E Clark, G J Price, Mrs J Williss, K F McDonald, P Esse & D C McDonald
R Jolly, M Whittaker, Mrs E Whittaker, T Di Bucchianico, P Ninnis, Mrs P Southern-Ninnis, G Gifford, S Gifford, D Cooper, M Shephard, Mrs M Shephard, G R Schintler, J Jenkins, Mrs S Whittaker, A Moreton, Bula Bula (Mgr: C Fitzgerald) & Martin Racing (Mgr: P Martin)
Royal Blue, Green Diagonal Stripes, White Diamond Striped Sleeves, White Cap
Owners
D G Bascomb, J R Bascomb, Mrs A C Bascomb, I E Dahlitz, T M Seal, G J Fitzgerald, Mrs D Henderson, P A Treloar, Mrs S A Redden, K J Burgess, J A Indraratne, M G Bradbrook, R Burgess & J Redden
Royal Blue, White Chevrons, Yellow Sleeves And Seams On Cap
Owners
D G Reynolds, J Carvill, J Stirk, Lower North Racing (Mgr: J R Nicholls), N A Taylor, Ms N Rantanen Reynolds, T M Pollock, T Kloeden, W A Turnbull, Ms C L Smith, M Carnell & Mrs C Bunker
Navy Blue, White Sash, Lime Green Striped Sleeves, Quartered Cap
Owners
R Jolly, G Neo, I M Perryman, P Twartz, P Ditchburn, G Carlson, J Naffine, K Wetherall, P Vaughan, A Hayes, Ms C Ormond, D P Hoffmann, Equine Epicureans (Mgr: J F C Petch), BBQ Inn Racing No 1 (Mgr: R R Jolly), BBQ Inn Racing No 2 (Mgr: R R Jolly) & Seymour Bloodstock (Mgr: D S Thomas)
C A Reynolds, P J Ninnis, J M Baker, N G Holton, R M Warnock, R S Holton, G K McCarthy, M K McCarthy, D R Ward, G D Mittiga, Ms J Heaney, Ms R J Atkinson, Mrs L A Warnock, Mrs P C Southern-Ninnis, Ms C H Holton, Mrs M T Holton, Lot B (Mgr: T H Burrows) & Island Gold Diggers (Mgr: K Heaney)
Pipeliner Bloodstock Pty Ltd (Mgr: W G Mitchell), O T I Racing (Mgr: T F Henderson), Sunlands Produce Pty Ltd (Mgr: G W Pfeiler, H A Ledowsky, Mrs C J Ledowsky, M J Davidson, J W & Mrs J J Relph, A H Goodfellow, T N Porter, L Webb, Ms D McKeown & Uthmeyer Racing (Mgr: G Uthmeyer)
B W Crowell, Mrs L J Crowell, Mrs J M Oxlade, A W Crowell, Mrs M J L Crowell, T W Crowell, Ms D M Jones, G J Wheare, Mrs M J Wheare, Ms T M Oxlade & Miss C I Oxlade
R R Jolly, A White, P Cook, Mrs K Donald, D Donald, D Cooper, H Parker, M Crawford, D Crawford, M Whittaker, Mrs E Whittaker, P Ninnis, Mrs P Southern-Ninnis, G Gifford, Triple-G Racing (Mgr: M Shephard), The Booligans (Mgr: T Lanyon) & Bula Bula (Mgr: C Fitzgerald)
Black And White Checks, Royal Blue Sleeves, Black And White Checked Cap
Owners
N L Kersten, Ms N Rantanen Reynolds, A Darcy, A Poulter, B T Cunningham, D Baker, Miss S Berlin, Miss A E Shepard, Ms R Bullen, P Gardiner, Ms M Murphy, S R Aylett, R J Dehne, Mrs C Walker, S Walker, B W Edwards, Mrs A Allen, M G Turner & J Strout
Navy Blue, White Seams, White And Navy Blue Seams Cap
Owners
W J W Thompson, D L Summerton, J A David, N J Kerr, M C Sexton, C G Sexton, B Sutcliffe, B M Romer, B Franklin, J Hughes, P Hughes, A Hughes, A T Dennis, Miss T Mcintosh, Balmoral Lodge, Back That Racing, Pajama Racing, Diamond Dobbers, Zee Dee Tay & Miss K Harrison
A Maloney, A Beaton, Carty Racing, C J Speers, B A Carp, A D Wolff, Dr B M Carp, P Cherny, D M Briskin, N Sable, G D Peer, M A Herskope, Miss P V McKenzie, S Kazakis, M Churchill, J A O'neill, R M Brott, Seven Sovereigns, MarbleD Racing, A L Kirkwood-Scott & M Bowd
G S Danckert, T J A Marshall, B V Stenner, G W Bulmer, T Edwards, L T Danckert, O Edwards, T Fletcher Alan, G W Guest, Ms J Heaney, Mrs M A Stenner, Goldfinger Racing, Wheels of Courage 1, Wheels of Courage 2, Oaklands Central Racing, Sundance, Super Six, Bluebloods Racing & Copy The Milkman
A F Burke, D Viney, S L Burdock, S Argiris, S A Calagaz, M I Haslam, G R Harrison, E Eren, M J Salter, T A Say, J D Viney, K J Burke, J E Hickmott & J Newberry
Black, Orange Checks, Bennett Racing Logo, White Checked Sleeves, Checked Cap
Owners
N P Bennett, A H Murphy, G Burrell, Punters And Collectors, I J Logan, S Stiles, Mrs D C Fisher, Mrs J G Barr, Mrs M J Davis, Mrs S M McMahon, Mrs J A Smith, Mrs S L Wisnewski, A D Stanley, G C Beattie, D Mullen, A J Meade, A M Riding, S A Illingworth, Bennett Racing Coral Reef & J Casey
Michael Hickmott Bloodstock, F M C HORSE SYNDICATE, Amorini Racing, Mayford Park 4, Dascomarles, PUNT AND A PINT RACING, Ms N Rantanen Reynolds, Mr P B Dobson, Mr P V Grix, Fighting Whytes, Mr JD Gerschwitz, L Hounslow, S Aboud, Portrush(A Brandwood)
W B Kluske, G B Kluske, C R Sundberg, Mrs V H Maddern, D G Maddern, G Wingard, K Richardson, M J D Lynn, S Chin, A W Haberfield, A F Wright, G G Dungey, R J Gregor, S J Gregor, B D Gregor, B L Rosenberg, A W Cameron, T Denham, Mrs M A Yates & S J Sims
Mrs R A Balfour, A D Saint, Parts Boys (Mgr: C Angel), G W Twigden, P W Twigden, C Babler, M P Dornan, G L Hand, D J Shannon, D Villano, M Vlahiotis, T Vlahiotis, R D C Ward, M B Weight, P G Weight, D J Havriluk & Ms K M Lindsay
Ms T Hartwell, Dr J Sinclair, F De Pasquale, N Stratfold, A Grantham, F Studd, B Pickard, M Simmonds, G Brown, Ms S Simmonds, C Bubner, Mrs K Bubner, L Bailey, P De Pasquale, Mrs L Stratfold, Cape Canaveral Syndicate, Who's Next (A Hryhorec), Hawkin Racing (T Busbridge) & Choclatte (C Hryhorec)
